Vegetation Modeling

The Bay Area vegetation model projects the proportion of the landscape that will be occupied by each vegetation type, under the equilibrium assumption that vegetation has fully responded to changing conditions.

A peer-reviewed paper presenting the model was published in PLOS ONE in 2015, and can be accessed here. A technical guide for managers interested in nuts and bolts can be downloaded here.

We present the model results as bar graphs, where each bar shows the proportion of the landscape occupied by the respective vegetation types, and the bars are arranged from the current baseline situation at the bottom to successively warmer future climate scenarios, moving up.

Click on the following links to obtain the bar graphs for the entire Bay Area, for each of the ten Bay Area counties, or for the 35 Bay Area landscape units (planning units defined by the Bay Area Open Space Council – see map and information here).

Bay Area Counties

Contra Costa
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
Santa Cruz

Landscape Units (zip file)

All Landscape Units