TBC3 Publications

Reports and publications by members of TBC3.

Ackerly, D.D., M.M. Kling, M.L. Clark, P. Papper, M.F. Oldfather, A.L. Flint, L.E. Flint. 2020. Topoclimates, refugia, and biotic responses to climate change. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment, in press.

Ackerly, D.D., M. Kozanitas, P. Papper, M. Oldfather, M. Clark. 2019. Mortality and resprouting in California oak woodlands following mixed-severity fire. Pp. 23-30. Proceedings of the International Oak Society, Davis CA.

Ackerly, D.D., A. Jones, M. Stacey, B. Riordan. 2018. San Francisco Bay Area Summary Report. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. Publication number: CCCA4-SUM-2018-005

Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Loarie, W. K. Cornwell, S. B. Weiss, H. Hamilton, R. Branciforte, and N. J. B. Kraft. 2010. The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Diversity and Distributions 16:476–487. Available here.

Ackerly, D. D. 2012. Future climate scenarios for California: freezing isoclines, novel climates, and climatic resilience of California’s protected areas. California Energy Commission.

Ackerly, D. D., W. K. Cornwell, S. B. Weiss, L. E. Flint, and A. L. Flint. 2015. A geographic mosaic of climate change impacts on terrestrial vegetation: Which areas are most at risk? Plos One 10:e0130629. Available here.

Ackerly, D. D., R. A. Ryals, W. K. Cornwell, S. R. Loarie, S. Veloz, K. D. Higgason, W. L. Silver, and T. E. Dawson. 2012. Potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services in the San Francisco Bay Area. California Energy Commission. Available here.

Ackerly, D., M. Oldfather, M. Britton, M. Halbur, and L. Micheli. 2013. Establishment of woodland vegetation research plots at Pepperwood Preserve. Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative. Dwight Center for Conservation Science at Pepperwood, Santa Rosa, CA. Available here.

Anderegg, W. R. L., A. Flint, C. Huang, L. Flint, J. A. Berry, F. W. Davis, J. S. Sperry, and C. B. Field. 2015. Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage. Nature Geoscience:1–5. Available here.

Beissinger, S.R. and D.D. Ackerly. 2017. Science, parks and conservation in a rapidly changing world. Pp. 363-387 in Beissinger, S.R., D.D. Ackerly, H. Doremus, G. Machlis, eds. Science, Conservation, and National Parks. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Branciforte, R., S. Weiss, and A. Recinos. 2013. Integrating climate data via the CLN Explorer. Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative. Dwight Center for Conservation Science at Pepperwood, Santa Rosa, CA.

Byrd, K., P. Alvarez, L. Flint, and A. Flint. 2014. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands. Menlo Park, CA.

Chardon, N. I., W. K. Cornwell, L. E. Flint, A. L. Flint, and D. D. Ackerly. 2015. Topographic, latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope. Ecography 38:590–601.

Chornesky, E. A. et al. 2015. Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate. BioScience 65:247–262. Available here.

Cornwell, W., S. Stuart, A. Ramirez, C. Dolanc, J. Thorne, and D. Ackerly. 2012. Climate change impacts on California vegetation: physiology, life history, and ecosystem change. California Energy Commission.

Fernandez, D., A. Torregrosa, P. Weiss-Penzias, A. Mairs, S. Wilson, M. Bowman, T. Barkley, M. Gravelle, and A. Oliphant. 2015. A52E-05: Standard fog collector measurements along the Central and Northern California Coast during the 2014 and 2015 fog seasons. Oral presentation at American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA.

Fernández, M., H. H. Hamilton, and L. M. Kueppers. 2015. Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood. Global Change Biology. Available from http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13027.

Flint, L. E., and A. L. Flint. 2012. Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains. Reston, Virginia.

Flint, L. E., and A. L. Flint. 2012. Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis. Ecological Processes 1:15. Springer Open Ltd. Available here.

Flint, L. E., A. L. Flint, J. H. Thorne, and R. Boynton. 2013. Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: the California Basin Characterization Model development and performance. Ecological Processes 2:25. Available here.

Halbur, M., M. Kennedy, D. Ackerly, L. Micheli, and J. Thorne. 2013. Creating a detailed vegetation map for Pepperwood Preserve. Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative. Dwight Center for Conservation Science at Pepperwood, Santa Rosa, CA.

Hannibal, M. E. 2014. TBC3: Wrestling Climate Change to the Ground. Bay Nature. Berkeley, CA. Available here.

Heller, N. 2013. Resilience in adaptation planning. Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative. Dwight Center for Conservation Science at Pepperwood, Santa Rosa, CA.

Heller, N. E., and R. J. Hobbs. 2014. Development of a natural practice to adapt conservation goals to global change. Conservation Biology 28:696–704.

Heller, N., J. Kreitler, D. D. Ackerly, S. B. Weiss, A. Recinos, R. Branciforte, L. E. Flint, A. L. Flint, and E. Micheli. 2015. Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change. Ecosphere 6:65. Available here.

Keeley, A., D.D. Ackerly, R.D. Cameron, N. Heller, P. Huber, C. Schloss, J. Thorne, A. Merenlender. 2018. New concepts, models, and assessments of climate-wise connectivity. Environmental Research Letters, 13: 073002. Available here.

Klausmeyer, K. R., M. R. Shaw, J. B. MacKenzie, and D. R. Cameron. 2011. Landscape-scale indicators of biodiversity’s vulnerability to climate change. Ecosphere 2:1–18. Available here.

Kling, M.M., B.D. Mishler, A.H. Thornhill, B.G. Baldwin, D.D. Ackerly. 2018. Facets of phylodiversity: evolutionary diversification, divergence and survival as conservation targets. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. 374: 20170397. Available here.

Lawler, J. J., D. D. Ackerly, C. M. Albano, M. G. Anderson, S. Z. Dobrowski, J. L. Gill, N. E. Heller, R. L. Pressey, E. W. Sanderson, and S. B. Weiss. 2015. The theory behind, and the challenges of, conserving nature’s stage in a time of rapid change. Conservation Biology 29:618–629. Available here.

Loarie, S. 2013. The Bay Area BioAtlas. Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative. Dwight Center for Conservation Science at Pepperwood, Santa Rosa, CA.

McIntyre, P. J., J. H. Thorne, C. R. Dolanc, A. L. Flint, L. E. Flint, M. Kelly, and D. D. Ackerly. 2014. Twentieth-century shifts in forest structure in California: Denser forests, smaller trees, and increased dominance of oaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112:1458–1463.

McLaughlin, B., D.D. Ackerly, P.Z. Klos, J. Natali, T.E. Dawson, S.E. Thompson. 2017. Hydrologic refugia, plants and climate change. Global Change Biology 23:2941-2961. Available here.

Merenlender, A., D.D. Ackerly, K.N. Suding, M.R. Shaw, and E.S. Zavaleta. 2016. Stewardship, conservation, and restoration in the context of environmental change. Pp. 925-941 in H.A. Mooney and E.S. Zavaleta, eds. Ecosystems of California—A source book. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.

Merenlender, A., D. Ackerly, S. Feirer, M. Gray, and J. Kreitler. 2013. Targeting corridors for climate change resilience. Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative. Dwight Center for Conservation Science at Pepperwood, Santa Rosa, CA.

Micheli, E., L. Flint, A. Flint, S. Weiss, and M. Kennedy. 2012. Downscaling future climate projections to the watershed scale: A North San Francisco Bay case study. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 4. Available here.

Micheli, L., and D. Ackerly. 2013. The Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative (TBC3): An interdisciplinary strategy for advancing science-based conservation. Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative. Dwight Center for Conservation Science at Pepperwood, Santa Rosa, CA.

Micheli, L., and D. DiPietro. 2013. North Bay vital signs: An integrated ecosystem-climate monitoring framework for Sonoma County. Available from www.northbayclimate.org.

Micheli, L., L. E. Flint, S. Veloz, and N. Heller. 2015. PA13B-05: Generating relevant climate adaptation science tools in concert with local natural resource agencies. Oral presentation at American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA.

Moanga, D., I. Schroeter, D.D.Ackerly, and V. Butsic. 2018. Avoided land use conversions and carbon loss from conservation purchases in California. J. Land Use Science. Available here.

Morueta-Holme, N. M.F. Oldfather, R. Olliff-Yang, A. Weitz, C. Levine, M. Kling, E. Riordan, C. Merow, S. Sheth, A.H. Thornhill, D.D. Ackerly. 2018. Best practices for reporting climate data in ecology. Nature Climate Change. Available here.

Oldfather, M.F., M.N. Britton, P. Papper, M.J. Koontz, M.M. Halbur, C. Dodge, A.L. Flint, L.E. Flint, D.D. Ackerly. Effects of topoclimatic complexity on the composition of woody plant communities. AoB Plants 8: plw049, doi: 10.1093/aobpla/plw049. Available here.

Santos, M. J., J. H. Thorne, Z. Frank, and J. Christensen. 2012. Reconstructing the conservation history of the San Francisco Bay Area over the last 80 years. North America Congress for Conservation Biology, Oakland, CA.

Scholl, M. A., A. Torregrosa, and T. B. Coplen. 2014. Determining the hydrological importance of coastal fog in Northern California using stable isotopes of water. Poster presentation at American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA.

Syphard, A.D., H. Rustigian-Romsos, M. Mann, E. Conlisk, M.A. Moritz, D.D. Ackerly. 2019. The relative influence of climate and housing development on current and projected future fire patterns and structure loss across three California landscapes. Global Environmental Change, 56: 41-55. Available here.

Thorne, J. H., R. M. Boynton, A. J. Holguin, J. A. E. Stewart, and J. Bjorkman. 2016. A climate change vulnerability assessment of California’s terrestrial vegetation. Sacramento, CA.

Thorne, J. H., R. M. Boynton, L. E. Flint, and A. L. Flint. 2015. The magnitude and spatial patterns of historical and future hydrologic change in California’ s watersheds. Ecosphere 6:1–30.

Thorne, J., R. Boynton, L. Flint, A. Flint, and T.-N. Le. 2012. Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies. California Energy Commission.

Torregrosa, A. 2013. Ecologically relevant fog data sets to improve Bay Area climate and hydrology projections. Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative. Dwight Center for Conservation Science at Pepperwood, Santa Rosa, CA.

Torregrosa, A., T. A. O’Brien, and I. C. Faloona. 2014. Coastal fog, climate change, and the environment. Eos 95:473–484.

Torregrosa, A., C. Combs, and J. Peters. 2016. GOES-derived fog and low cloud indices for coastal north and central California ecological analyses. Eos:1–23.

Torregrosa, A., A. Flint, C. Combs, and J. Peters. 2014. Fog as an ecosystem service: Quantifying fog-mediated reductions in maximum temperature across coastal to inland transects in northern California. Poster presentation at Ecological Society of America, Sacramento, CA.

Torregrosa, A., L. Flint, and A. Flint. 2015. A33H-0287: Coastal fog frequency and watershed recharge metrics for coho salmon conservation recovery. Poster presentation at American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA.

Torregrosa, A., M. D. Taylor, L. E. Flint, and A. L. Flint. 2013. Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California Region. PLoS ONE 8:1–14.

Weiss, S. B., A. L. Flint, and L. E. Flint. 2012. Stochastic analysis of multi-year runoff, recharge, and climatic water deficit in geologically varying watersheds. American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA.

Weiss, S. B., A. Flint, L. Flint, H. Hamilton, M. Fernandez, and L. Micheli. 2013. Climate scenarios for San Francisco Bay Area. Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative. Dwight Center for Conservation Science at Pepperwood, Santa Rosa, CA.


Affiliates and Products

Reports and publications by TBC3 affiliates or researchers using TBC3 data.

Byrd, K. B., L. E. Flint, P. Alvarez, C. F. Casey, B. M. Sleeter, C. E. Soulard, A. L. Flint, and T. L. Sohl. 2015. Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply. Landscape Ecology 30:729–750.

Coale, K. et al. 2015. B11D-0466: Dimethyl mercury in seawater: A potential source of monomethyl mercury in fog. Poster presentation at American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA.

Conlisk, E., A. D. Syphard, J. Franklin, L. Flint, A. Flint, and H. Regan. 2013. Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models. Global Change Biology 19:858–869.

Cushman, J. H., C. J. Lortie, and C. E. Christian. 2011. Native herbivores and plant facilitation mediate the performance and distribution of an invasive exotic grass. Journal of Ecology 99:524–531.

Cushman, S. A., K. S. McKelvey, and M. K. Schwartz. 2008. Use of empirically derived source-destination models to map regional conservation corridors. Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology 23:368–76. Available here.

Deitch, M. J., A. M. Merenlender, and S. Feirer. 2013. Cumulative effects of small reservoirs on streamflow in Northern Coastal California catchments. Water Resources Management 27:5101–5118.

Dingman, J. R., L. C. Sweet, I. McCullough, F. W. Davis, A. Flint, J. Franklin, and L. E. Flint. 2013. Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and tree seedling establishment in mountain landscapes. Ecological Processes 2:30. Ecological Processes. Available here.

Esralew, R. A., L. Flint, J. H. Thorne, R. Boynton, and A. Flint. 2015. A framework for effective use of hydroclimate models in climate-change adaptation planning for managed habitats with limited hydrologic response data. Environmental Management:16p. Springer US. Available here.

Flint, A., and L. Flint. 2007. Application of the basin characterization model to estimate in-place recharge and runoff potential in the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system, White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah. US Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5099. Reston, Virginia.

Flint, A. L. 2003. The role of unsaturated flow in artifical recharge projects. Pages 1–6 TOUGH Symposium. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA.

Flint, L. E., and A. L. Flint. 2014. California Basin Characterization Model: A dataset of historical and future hydrologic response to climate change. United States Geological Survey Data Release.

Flint, L. E., A. L. Flint, and J. H. Thorne. 2015. Climate change: Evaluating your local and regional water resources.

Flint, L. E., and A. L. Flint. 2008. A basin-scale approach to estimating stream temperatures of tributaries to the lower Klamath River, California. Journal of environmental quality 37:57–68.

Flint, L. E., and A. L. Flint. 2007. Regional Analysis of Ground-Water Recharge. USGS Professional Paper 1703-B.

Franklin, J., F. W. Davis, M. Ikegami, A. D. Syphard, L. E. Flint, A. L. Flint, and L. Hannah. 2013. Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: How fine scale do climate projections need to be? Global Change Biology 19:473–483.

Garner, K. L. et al. 2015. Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast. PeerJ 3:e958.

Guisan, A., S. Weiss, and A. Weiss. 1999. GLM versus CCA spatial modeling of plant species distribution. Plant Ecology 143:107–122. Available here.

Gultepe, I., B. Hansen, S. G. Cober, G. Pearson, J. A. Milbrandt, S. Platnick, P. Taylor, M. Gordon, and J. P. Oakley. 2009. The Fog Remote Sensing and Modeling Field Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90:341–359. Available here.

Hannah, L., L. Flint, A. D. Syphard, M. A. Moritz, L. B. Buckley, and I. M. McCullough. 2014. Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: Holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 29:390–397. Elsevier Ltd. Available here.

Heller, N. E., and E. S. Zavaleta. 2009. Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations. Biological Conservation 142:14–32.

Kadir, T., L. Mazur, C. Milanes, and K. Randles. 2013. Impacts of climate change in California. Sacramento, CA.

Klausmeyer, K. R., and M. R. Shaw. 2009. Climate change, habitat loss, protected areas and the climate adaptation potential of species in mediterranean ecosystems worldwide. PloS one 4:e6392. Available here.

Lawler, J. J. et al. 2010. Resource management in a changing and uncertain climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 8:35–43.

Loarie, S., P. Duffy, H. Hamilton, G. Asner, C. Field, and D. Ackerly. 2009. The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:1052–5. Available here.

Lundquist, J. D., and A. L. Flint. 2006. Onset of Snowmelt and Streamflow in 2004 in the Western United States: How Shading May Affect Spring Streamflow Timing in a Warmer World. Journal of Hydrometeorology 7:1199–1217.

Mastrandrea, M. D., N. E. Heller, T. L. Root, and S. H. Schneider. 2010. Bridging the gap: Linking climate-impacts research with adaptation planning and management. Climatic Change 100:87–101.

McCullough, I. M., F. W. Davis, J. R. Dingman, L. E. Flint, A. L. Flint, J. M. Serra-Diaz, A. D. Syphard, M. A. Moritz, L. Hannah, and J. Franklin. 2015. High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes. Landscape Ecology:1–13. Springer Netherlands. Available from “http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0318-x.

Merenlender, A. M., S. Reed, J. Kitzes, and S. Feirer. 2010. Mayacamas connectivity report. Berkeley, CA.

Micheli, L., L. Flint, A. Flint, M. Kennedy, S. Weiss, and R. Branciforte. 2010. Adapting to climate change: state of the science for North Bay watersheds a guide for managers. Santa Rosa, CA.

Point Blue Conservation Science, and TomKat Ranch Educational Foundation. 2014. Scenario Planning for Climate Change at TomKat Ranch. Petaluma, CA.

Reed, S. E., and A. M. Merenlender. 2011. Effects of management of domestic dogs and recreation on carnivores in protected areas in Northern California. Conservation Biology 25:504–513.

Reed, S. E., and A. M. Merenlender. 2008. Quiet, nonconsumptive recreation reduces protected area effectiveness. Conservation Letters 1:146–154.

Rissman, A. R., R. Reiner, and A. M. Merenlender. 2007. Monitoring natural resources on rangeland conservation easements. Rangelands 29:21–26.

Rissman, A., and A. Merenlender. 2008. The conservation contributions of conservation easements: analysis of the San Francisco Bay Area protected lands spatial database. Ecology and Society 13:40. Available here.

Sahba, O. et al. 2015. A33H-0283: Mercury and other chemical constituents in Pacific marine fog water: Results from two summers of sampling in FogNet. Poster presentation at American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA.

Serra-Diaz, J. M. et al. 2015. Averaged 30 year climate change projections mask opportunities for species establishment. Ecography:1–2.

Van de Ven, C. M., S. B. Weiss, and W. G. Ernst. 2007. Plant Species Distributions under Present Conditions and Forecasted for Warmer Climates in an Arid Mountain Range. Earth Interactions 11:1–33. Available here.

van Mantgem, P. J., J. C. B. Nesmith, M. Keifer, E. E. Knapp, A. Flint, and L. Flint. 2013. Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States. Ecology Letters 16:1151–1156.

Veloz, S. D., J. W. Williams, J. L. Blois, F. He, B. Otto-Bliesner, and Z. Liu. 2012. No-analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late quaternary: implications for 21st-century predictions by species distribution models. Global Change Biology 18:1698–1713. Available here.

Williams, J. W., H. M. Kharouba, S. Veloz, M. Vellend, J. McLachlan, Z. Liu, B. Otto-Bliesner, and F. He. 2013. The ice age ecologist: Testing methods for reserve prioritization during the last global warming. Global Ecology and Biogeography 22:289–301.


Publications list last updated December 2019.