Due to changes in rainfall, fog, and wildfire patterns, coast redwood forests emerged as one of the most vulnerable habitats. A hotter, drier future will likely see these forests increasingly drought-stressed.

San Francisco, CA (January 13, 2025) – Two efforts identify species and habitats most vulnerable to climate change in the Golden Gate region, offering a critical new tool for managers working to save them. The Golden Gate Biosphere Network (GGBN), in partnership with the climate-focused organization EcoAdapt, recently completed a climate vulnerability assessment. The assessment considered 21 key species and habitats within its 28,000-mile boundary. Pepperwood completed the climate and vegetation portion of this assessment for EcoAdapt’s report. Rooted in the best available science and expert guidance, the report summarizes the following:

• how vulnerable each species or habitat is under different climate scenarios,
• where each species’ or habitat’s greatest sensitivities lie,
• and how well the species or habitat may be able to adapt to a changing climate. 

The bad news first

Due to changes in rainfall, fog, and wildfire patterns, coast redwood forests emerged as one of the most vulnerable habitats. A hotter, drier future will likely see these forests increasingly drought-stressed. Likewise, coho salmon, already teetering on the brink of extinction in some local streams, are especially sensitive to drought and habitat loss. Although the San Bruno elfin butterfly is a federally endangered species with regulatory protections, it too is threatened. It is only found in small populations, does not disperse great distances, and is highly dependent on a host plant, broadleaf stonecrop (Sedum spathulifolium), whose survival is also threatened. Indeed, adaptation for many species will include suitable habitats shifting elsewhere as the climate changes. 

Climate change good news? There’s hope!

The report also focuses on the actions that land managers, local governments, community groups, and others can take to help restore and protect these Bay Area icons. Habitat protection and restoration are paramount, as are the connections between and among habitats scattered throughout the region. The challenge is that many of these places are under the ownership and care of different agencies and organizations. This is where the power of the GGBN comes in. 

The GGBN is one of 28 biosphere networks in the US and part of an international system of over 700 biospheres. It is a partnership of 19 groups, all dedicated to protecting and stewarding the natural world. Alison Forrestel, Golden Gate National Recreation Area Natural Resources and Science Division Chief, shared her excitement, “With this information in hand, and with the power of the biosphere network to cross boundaries, we can now work together to protect the most vulnerable resources we have, and to even consider how to help species migrate among fragmented habitats if they can no longer survive where they are.”  

Enter stage right: the Golden Gate Biosphere Network

The Golden Gate Biosphere spans five Bay Area counties and extends 200 miles into the Pacific Ocean. However, this climate vulnerability assessment intentionally focused on land and nearshore resources. The report complements another, more marine-focused climate vulnerability assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of National Marine Sanctuaries. 

Completed in 2015 and updated in 2024, the Greater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries climate vulnerability assessment covers 44 focal resources, including eight habitats, 31 species, and five ecosystem services. Combining these projects was made easier by the fact that they were both led by EcoAdapt using the same methodology, and they have very similar goals and objectives. 

Where Land and Sea Meet

Because what happens on land and at sea are inexorably linked, these reports are being presented together. The Golden Gate Biosphere is an interconnected system. For example, a terrestrial ecosystem that is highly vulnerable to fire can affect adjacent coastal ecosystems and even the ocean through run-off and erosion. By referencing the assessment results, managers can make informed decisions and identify critical partnerships and research questions.

“From massive blue whales to dime-size mission blue butterflies, we can now look at the species and ecosystems that are most at risk from climate change across the whole, interconnected system in ways that better reflect how the natural world really works, as opposed to how we have drawn our agency boundaries,” notes Maria Brown, Superintendent of Greater Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries.  

With these two products, those entrusted to care for some of the region’s most special places can more effectively work together and plan for the future. A copy of this combined report may be viewed or downloaded from the GGBN website. This includes an executive summary for both the GGBN and Sanctuaries reports and summaries and briefs for many of the species that were included.

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