What is TBC3?

A vibrant collective of university, nonprofit and government experts, TBC3 is focused on advancing the best available science to inform climate adaptation strategies for natural resources in California’s Coast Ranges.

Our goal is to combine our skill sets in innovative ways to advance a cross-disciplinary understanding of how climate, fire and biology intersect in the stunning mountains and valleys of our region. We connect researchers directly with land and water managers to help navigate the complexities of measuring and modeling relationships between climate, hydrology, wildfire and ecosystem response in terrestrial and freshwater environments. We utilize Pepperwood as a home-base for workshops, trainings, adaptive management pilot projects and long-term integrated climate-water-ecosystem Sentinel Site monitoring.

Meet the Team


What TBC3 can do for you

Understanding how climate and fire may stress our watersheds and ecosystems is critical. Ecosystem services provided by natural open spaces will be central to integrated adaptation strategies for both our urban and rural communities.

Land and water managers need science to guide decision-making. TBC3 offers assistance in the utilization of our cutting-edge knowledge bases to inform these decisions. We help users to navigate high-resolution climate data for regional conservation plans. We offer real-time monitoring systems to test model hypotheses and to inform adaptive management strategies. We create free online tools to allow more savvy data users the opportunity to independently explore our potential climate futures. Climate data is currently available through the Conservation Lands Network Explorer tool, the San Francisco Bay Watershed Analyst, and the Climate Commons.

Contact us directly to explore further needs:

Contact Us

TBC3 is a collaborative project co-chaired by Pepperwood and UC Berkeley with critical funding from the National Science Foundation

Why TBC3?

California has a growing population, a dynamic economy, and one of the best networks of protected open spaces in the world. Our parks and working lands protect biodiversity, provide important ecosystem services, and are vital to our quality of life. In this century, California and the planet are facing dramatic changes in climate coupled with increased urbanization, habitat fragmentation, and the advent of megafires. Threatened habitats and species may disappear from reserves that were created for their protection, and conversely, protected areas set aside today may serve as critical refuges or stepping stones for species migrating across fragmented landscapes in the future. Understanding how climate and fire may stress our watersheds and ecosystems is critical. Ecosystem services provided by natural open spaces will be central to integrated adaptation strategies for both our urban and rural communities. Today’s decisions regarding acquisition and management of protected areas and working lands could profoundly impact our region’s watersheds and biodiversity for centuries to come.


Pepperwood Preserve Ecologist, Michelle Halbur, measuring tree DBH as part of post-fire forest monitoring at Pepperwood, spring 2018

(Above) Climate & weather monitoring site – part of the Sentinel Site at Pepperwood Preserve (Below) Landsat image of fog in San Francisco Bay, May 22, 1991

2020 Post-Fire Assessment Tools

Landsat-derived burn intensity maps and a set of field protocols for ground-based assessments developed by SSU’s Clark Lab, Pepperwood, UC Berkeley’s Ackerly Lab, and UC Davis’ Latimer Lab. 

Post-Fire Tools

Fire Modeling

Application of a fire-modeling algorithm that incorporates BCM soil moisture and plant productivity indicators developed by UC Santa Barbara’s Moritz Lab. Read the white paper developed for the California Energy Commission's Climate Change Center here.

Vegetation Modeling

A vegetation model projecting how climate may drive the potential distribution patterns of native vegetation cover and habitats at a landscape unit scale developed by UC Berkeley’s Ackerly Lab. Resources include a scenario planning workshop format using model outputs, the proceedings of which can be accessed here.

Vegetation Impacts 

Vulnerability Assessments

TBC3 vulnerability assessments for Climate Ready North Bay and the North Coast Climate Partnership

Climate Ready

Climate & Hydrology Projections

High-resolution climate and hydrology projections from the USGS California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) that capture historic conditions plus 18 projected climate futures in monthly time-steps at a 270 m spatial scale. Data can be accessed at the following platforms: Conservation Lands Network, Watershed Climate Smart Analyst, California Climate Commons, and Bay Area Greenprint.

Climate & Hydrology

Fog Mapping

A pioneering USGS fog-frequency map for the Bay Area and environs based on weather satellite sources. 

Fog Project